PUBLICATIONS
Book
Rebuilding Arab Defense: US Security Cooperation in the Middle East (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, May 2022)
Paper/Journal Article
The Other Saudi Transformation, Middle East Policy, Summer 2022 Issue
US-Gulf Relations at the Crossroads: Time for a Recalibration, Middle East Institute, April 5, 2022
Enabling US Security Cooperation, Survival, Vol. 63, No. 4 (August/September 2021), pp. 89-99
Blindsiding the Gulf, The National Interest, No. 168, July/August Issue 2020
Battered Survivor: Hezbollah At Home and Abroad (Ed), Roundtable Report, Middle East Institute, February 2020
Broken Partnerships: Can Washington Get Security Cooperation Right?, The Washington Quarterly, Fall 2019 Issue
Beyond the Proxy Powder Keg: The Specter of War Between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Middle East Institute, May 2018
Atomic Bonds in an Age of Entropy: The Pursuit of a Nuclear Security Framework in the Middle East, The Century Foundation, February 2018 (with Nilsu Goren)
The Cost of Military Aid, The National Interest, March/April 2018 Issue
Iran's Long Game in Bahrain, Atlantic Council, December 2017
U.S. Strategy Options for Iran's Regional Challenge, Atlantic Council, October 2017 (with Kenneth M. Pollack)
Countering Iran, The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 30. No. 1 (Fall 2017), pp. 97-108 (with Kenneth M. Pollack)
A Gulf in the Gulf?, The American Interest, Vol. 12, No. 3 (Jan/Feb 2017)
Precision Fire: A Strategic Assessment of Iran's Conventional Missile Program, Atlantic Council, September 2016 (with Michael Elleman)
Bahrain's Inconvenient Truths, Atlantic Council, July 2016
After Hub-And-Spoke: US Hegemony In A New Gulf Security Order, Atlantic Council, April 2016
ISIS War Game III: The Final Phase, Atlantic Council, December 2015
The New Containment: Changing America's Approach to Middle East Security, Atlantic Council, July 2015
Beyond Camp David: A Gradualist Strategy to Upgrade the US-Gulf Security Partnership, Atlantic Council, May 2015 (with Barry Pavel)
ISIS War Game II: The Escalation Challenge, Atlantic Council, March 2015 (with Michael S. Tyson)
Artful Balance: Future US Defense Strategy and Force Posture in the Gulf, Atlantic Council, March 2015 (with Barry Pavel)
Hezbollah in a Time of Transition, Atlantic Council and Brookings, November 2014 (with Daniel Byman)
ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate, Atlantic CouncilOctober 2014 (with Michael S. Tyson)
"The Future of Arms Control in the Middle East," in Regional Security Dialogue in the Middle East: Changes, Challenges, and Opportunities (London: Taylor & Francis, July 2014)
The Gulf Rising: Defense Industrialization in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Atlantic Council, May 2014
Nuclear Strategy and Posture Trump Size, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 20, No. 3 (November 2013)
The Future of Arms Control in the Middle East, Middle East Journal, Vol. 67, No. 3 (Summer 2013), pp. 426-436
The 2012 Conference on a Weapons of Mass Destruction-Free Zone in the Middle East: Prospects, Challenges, and Opportunities, A Special Roundtable Report, The Center for Nonproliferation Studies (July 2012)
A Review of Warriors of God: Inside Hezbollah's Thirty Year Struggle Against Israel, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 35, No. 5 (May 2012), pp. 405-409
The Next War: How Another Conflict Between Hizballah and Israel Could Look and How Both Sides Are Preparing For It, (with Nicholas Blanford), Analysis Paper, Number 24, Brookings, August 2011
Levantine Reset: Toward a more viable US strategy for Lebanon, Analysis Paper, Number 21, The Saban Center at Brookings, July 2010
Criminality and Armed Groups: A Comparative Study of FARC and Paramilitary Groups in Columbia, (with Alexandra Taylor), Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 32, No. 6, pp. 455–475, June 2009
Rethinking Hizb’allah’s Disarmament, Middle East Policy, Vol. XV, No. 3, Fall 2008
Securing Lebanon from the Threat of Salafist Jihadism, (with Magnus Ranstorp), Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 30, No. 10, pp. 825-855 October 2007
Policy Brief
US Aid to Saudi Arabia on Missile Defense Is Not Unconditional, Foreign Policy, June 24, 2022
Why Washington should provide direct cash payments to the Lebanese army, Middle East Institute, June 6, 2022
Special briefing: Lebanese elections reshape the political scene, Middle East Institute, May 18, 2022
How Biden can rebuild US ties with the Gulf states, Foreign Policy, April 4, 2022 (with Karen Young)
A gradual reset with Saudi Arabia, Middle East Insight, February 22, 2022
Integrated Air and Missile Defense Will Enhance Security in the Middle East, The National Interest, October 30, 2021
The CIA is better than the U.S. military at creating foreign armies, Foreign Policy, August 31, 2021 (with Douglas London)
The Roadblocks to a Regional Security Dialogue in the Middle East, Middle East Institute, April 2021
Hezbollah Amid Lebanese Collapse, Lawfare, February 21, 2021
What A New Iran Nuclear Deal Really Requires, Foreign Policy, January 27, 2021
In Historic Deal with the UAE, Israel Is the Biggest Winner, Foreign Policy, August 13, 2020
Regional Security from the Ground Up, MEI Insights, February 27, 2020 (with Chen Kane)
Battered Survivor: Hezbollah At Home and Abroad (Ed), Roundtable Report, Middle East Institute, February 2020
Lebanon's Inconvenient Truths, MEI Insights, January 29, 2020
Trump's Curious Multilateralism, Foreign Policy, January 28, 2020
For Now, U.S. Troops Are Likely in Iraq To Stay, Foreign Policy, January 9, 2020 (with Michael P. Mulroy)
Washington Should Back, Not Punish, the Lebanese Military, Foreign Policy, November 5, 2019
Trump Is Sending More Troops to Saudi Arabia, Foreign Policy, October 16, 2019
Arms Sales Can't Replace US Engagement in the Gulf, Foreign Policy, September 20, 2019
The Coming Middle East Missile Arms Race, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, September 25, 2018
Mohamed Bin Salman Unhinged? Maybe Not, American Interest, September 6, 2018
Relocating the Fifth Fleet? It's Far From A No-Brainer, American Interest, August 22, 2018
Iran's Options in Southern Syria, American Interest, June 8, 2018
The Middle East's Next Big War? Saudi Arabia and Iran Could Be Just One Houthi Missile Away From War, American Interest, April 11, 2018
The Middle East's Next Big Challenge: Nuclear Security, American Interest, November 30, 2017 (with Nilsu Goren)
Fatah Fights Jihad in Lebanon, Foreign Affairs, May 2, 2017
Can Mohamed Bin Salman Reshape Saudi Arabia?, Foreign Affairs, January 5, 2017
Will Syria Be Hezbollah's Proving Ground Or Its Undoing?, World Politics Review, July 26, 2016 (with Nicholas Blanford)
Lebanon's Deal with the Devil: The Prisoner Swap with Jabhat Al Nusra, Foreign Affairs, December 6, 2016
Red-Teaming ISIS, MENA Source, Atlantic Council, November 18, 2015
The Missing Ingredient in America's Middle East Policy, National Interest, July 27, 2015
Can the House of Saud Survive ISIS?, Foreign Affairs, June 11, 2015
A New Saudi Foreign Policy for a New Era, MENA Source, Atlantic Council, May 13, 2015
A Fresh Start with the Gulf? How to Repair Ties with Washington's Arab Partners, Foreign Affairs, May 13, 2015 (with Barry Pavel)
Houthi and the Blowback: Saudi Arabia Steps in to Yemen, Foreign Affairs, March 29, 2015
Hezbollah Hesitates? The Group's Uncertain Transformation, Foreign Affairs, January 21, 2015 (with Daniel Byman)
Riyadh's Oil Play: Why the Kingdom is Keeping Prices Low, Foreign Affairs, January 6, 2015 (with Robert A. Manning)
Silent Partner: How Oman Became the Middle East's Indispensable Nation, Foreign Affairs, October 29, 2014
Beyond Airstrikes: How the US Can Accelerate the Islamic State's Defeat, Defense One, September 5, 2014
What the UAE Really Wants from NATO, Foreign Affairs, August 15, 2014
The Dishonest Broker: Why Qatar's Peacemaking Shouldn't Be Trusted, Foreign Affairs, July 30, 2014
Lebanon's Presidential Crisis Hangs on Saudi, Iranian Rivalry, World Politics Review, June 25, 2014
Arms and Influence in the Gulf, Foreign Affairs, May 5, 2014
The False Promise to a Piecemeal Approach to a WMD-Free Middle East, RUSI Newsbrief, March 7, 2014
Breakup in the Gulf: What the GCC Dispute Means for Qatar, Foreign Affairs, March 6, 2014
In Lebanon, New Government Unlikely to Herald New Political Era, World Politics Review, March 4, 2014
Swapping Sovereignty: Can Iran and the UAE Make a Deal?, Foreign Affairs, January 19, 2014
Getting to Zero in the Middle East, MENA Source at Atlantic Council, December 11, 2013
The Incredible Shrinking Buffer, Foreign Affairs, October 28, 2013
How Assad Might Strike Back (with Rex Brynen), Foreign Policy, August 28, 2013
Forget the Second Carrier: It's Time to Think the Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf, Defense One, August 13, 2013
Why Russia's Guns Won't Save Assad, Foreign Policy, July 19, 2013
The Syrian Spillover and Salafist Radicalization in Lebanon, Sentinel at Combating Terrorism Center, Vol. 6, No. 7 (July 2013)
Asia Pivot Step One: Ease Gulf Worries, National Interest, June 20, 2013
The Death of Lebanon's Intelligence Tsar, Foreign Policy, October 22, 2012
Unpacking Al-Qaeda's Presence in Syria, Jane's Islamic Affairs Analyst, September 27, 2012
Axis of Resistance: Syrian Uprising Threatens Hezbollah's Strategic Alliances, IHS Defense, Risk, and Security Consulting, September 2012
Assad's Toxic Assets (with Chen Kane and Leonard Spector), Foreign Policy, March 13, 2012
No Hotline to Tehran, National Interest, February 10, 2012
The Futility of Predicting Iran's Future, Foreign Policy, February 2, 2012
A New Hamas in the Making?, National Interest, December 20, 2011
Ominous New Struggle for Hezbollah, National Interest, October 24, 2011
Can Libya Be Locked Down, WMD Junction, September 22, 2011
Seeing Red Along the Blue Line (with Nicholas Blanford), Foreign Policy, July 29, 2011
Israel, Hezbollah, and the Shadow of Imad Muhgniyeh, Sentinel at Combating Terrorism Center, June 2011
Will the Syrian Army Join the Dissent Movement?, Foreign Policy, May 4, 2011
Syria Goes to War, National Interest, April 4, 2011
Lebanon's Unfulfilled Promise, Foreign Affairs, October 19, 2010
What Do Red Teams Really Do?, Foreign Policy, September 3, 2010
Iran: Blind Man's Bluff, Foreign Policy, March 30, 2010
Lebanon at Risk from Salafi Jihadi Terrorist Cells, Sentinel at Combating Terrorism Center, February 3, 2010
The Failure of Salafi Jihadi Movements in the Levant, Sentinel at Combating Terrorism Center, September 2009
Al-Qaeda's Presence and Influence in Lebanon, Sentinel at Combating Terrorism Center, November 2008
Shaping Lebanon's Future, Brookings Middle East Memo No. 12, March 19, 2008
Fatah Al Islam: How An Ambitious Jihadist Project Went Awry (with Magnus Ranstorp), Brookings and the Swedish National Defence College, October 28, 2007
Scenarios: Lebanon's Presidential Elections, Jane's Intelligence Review, October 25, 2007
Al-Qaeda's Terrorist Threat to UNIFIL (with Magnus Ranstorp), Brookings and Swedish National Defence College, June 2007
Expanding the Jihad: Hezbollah's Sunni Islamist Network (with Bruce Riedel), Brookings, February 1, 2007
Saudi Reform: A Balance Between Reformers and Conservatives, Daily Star, April 3, 2004
Saudi Arabia: A Year After the Invasion of Iraq, Daily Star, April 2, 2004
Op-ed
Could Ukraine offer a template for better US-Gulf security relations?, Defense One, May 17, 2022 (with Melissa Horvath)
The Security Dimension of the Abraham Accords, Defense One, April 26, 2022
US Response Options to Growing Houthi Attacks, MEI Insight, January 25, 2022 (with Joseph Votel, Mick Mulroy, Kevin Donegan, and Michael Nagata)
How Involved Was Iran in the Houthi Attack on the UAE?, MEI Insight, January 20, 2022
Washington Must Lay Down Its Red Lines to Iran, The National, December 13, 2021
Diplomacy Is the Key to Reducing US Forces in the Mideast, Defense One, December 6, 2021 (with Barry Pavel)
Don't Arm the Afghan Resistance, Foreign Policy, October 5, 2021
The CIA is better than the U.S. military at creating foreign armies, Foreign Policy, August 31, 2021 (with Douglas London)
Biden Must Keep U.S. Operatives in Afghanistan to Enable Counterterrorism Mission, TIME, August 23, 2021 (with Mick Mulroy)
Move the US-Iraq Relationship Out of Crisis Mode, Defense One, August 9, 2021
Mr. President, keep the military advisors in Afghanistan, July 12, 2021
The Lebanese Army Needs Cash, Foreign Policy, June 18, 2021
The Threat of Armed Drones: Solutions Will Come, But They May Not Be Cost-Effective, Middle East Institute, June 10, 2021
The Military Lesson of Afghanistan, MEI Insights, April 15, 2021
Biden's Idea for a Saudi Offensive Arms Halt Is Unfeasible, Defense One, March 16, 2021
What A New Iran Nuclear Deal Really Requires, Foreign Policy, January 27, 2021
Can US CENTCOM Afford Israel?, The National, January 26, 2021 (with Michael P. Mulroy)
Guidance for a new force posture in the Middle East, MEI, January 14, 2021
Lebanon's civil society holds key to national rehabilitation, ABC News, January 7, 2021
Why the premature verdict on Lloyd Austin?, MEI Insights, December 9, 2020
Esper's Curious Partners-and-Allies Initiative, Defense One, October 30, 2020
The Coming F-35 Fiasco, Defense One, October 8, 2020
The Politics of Saudi Normalization with Israel, ABC News, October 1, 2020
Qatar's Likely and Long-Overdue Major Non-NATO Ally Status, MEI Monday Briefing, September 21, 2020
After Deadly Beirut Explosion, Lebanese Army Must Maintain Neutrality, ABC News, August 18, 2020 (with Joseph Votel)
In Historic Deal with the UAE, Israel Is the Biggest Winner, Foreign Policy, August 13, 2020
A Silver Lining in Lebanon?, MEI Insights, August 7, 2020
Iran's Latest Naval Drill Is Embarrassing, MEI Insights, July 29, 2020
We Need a Better China Policy in the Middle East, Defense One, July 28, 2020 (with Joseph Votel)
Israel Annexation Plan Diminishes Hope for Better Ties with Gulf Arab States, NPR, June 30, 2020 (with Charlotte Armistead)
Gulf Partners can no longer afford to stay the course with U.S. Iran policy, NPR, May 15, 2020 (with Mick Mulroy)
It's not about the Patriots, MEI Insights, May 8, 2020
Lebanon Crisis: How the US Can Bypass Hezbollah and Help the People, The National, March 3, 2020
Lebanon's Inconvenient Truths: A Brief Rejoinder, MEI Insights, February 3, 2020
Lebanon's Inconvenient Truths, MEI Insights, January 29, 2020
Can the New Lebanese Government Survive?, MEI Insights, January 22, 2020
Washington Should Back, Not Punish, the Lebanese Military, Foreign Policy, November 5, 2019
Hezbollah's Counterrevolution, MEI Insights, October 23, 2019
Only Lebanon Can Save Lebanon, MEI Insights, October 18, 2019
Trump Is Sending More Troops to Saudi Arabia, Foreign Policy, October 16, 2019
For Saudi Arabia, What Now?, Defense One, September 23, 2019
An Attack Against All in the Middle East, Middle East Institute, September 19, 2019
Why Cutting Military Aid to Lebanon Would Be A Mistake, American Interest, July 27, 2018
Can This Man Alter Lebanon's Political Landscape?, The National Interest, June 12, 2018
The United States Has Not Lost Lebanon, Foreign Policy, May 8, 2018
Hezbollah After Lebanon's Elections, American Interest, May 3, 2018
Trump's New Arms-Sales Policy Is Good But Sounds Awful, Defense one, April 27, 2018
Limit Iran's missiles? Sure, but first come up with a plan, Middle East Institute, March 29, 2018
Don't Let the Saudis Destabilize Lebanon, Foreign Affairs, November 20, 2017
Trump's Iran Strategy Needs Much Improvement, Wall Street Journal, November 19, 2017 (with Kenneth Pollack)
The Future of Saad Hariri, American Interest, November 10, 2017
What Hariri's Resignation Means for Lebanon, Foreign Affairs, November 6, 2017
Trump Goes to Saudi Arabia, Foreign Affairs, May 18, 2017
Lebanon's New Head of State: Aoun Gets His Wish, Foreign Affairs, October 31, 2016
Why an Iran-Saudi Arabia Conflict Is More Likely Today Than Ever Before, Newsweek, October 18, 2016
In Yemen, a complicated conflict has yet to find the right solution, The National, October 10, 2016
Neither Washington Nor Riyadh's Peace Plans in Yemen Will Work, MENA Source, Atlantic Council, September 22, 2016
Ten Years After, the Threat of another Conflict Is Real, The National, August 22, 2016 (with Nicholas Blanford)
Future Deterrence Frameworks for the GCC, Defense News, July 12, 2016
How Will Regional Security Change After Obama?, The National, July 12, 2016
The Arab Peace Initiative Can and Should Be Revived, The National, May 15, 2016
Obama's Last Chance to Change the Saudi Arabia Playbook, Defense One, April 20, 2016
The United States Has No Gulf Allies: The Importance of Language, Foreign Affairs, April 12, 2016
Back to Lebanon's Future: The Political Revival of the Country's Christians, Foreign Affairs, January 26, 2016
Saudi Arabia's Plan in Syria, Foreign Affairs, December 18, 2015
How to End Syria's War, Newsweek, December 18, 2015
On ISIS, Obama Will Muddle Through For Another Year, Newsweek, November 11, 2015
The UAE's Bold Choice in Yemen, Newsweek, September 23, 2015
Iran Debates Its Regional Role, Atlantic Council, September 17, 2015
Trashy Politics in Lebanon, Foreign Affairs, September 1, 2015
Reassuring America's Gulf Arab Partners, National Interest, March 24, 2015 (with Barry Pavel)
Middle East needed more attention in Obama's new National Security Strategy, Atlantic Council, February 6, 2015
Saudi Arabia's Way Forward, Foreign Affairs, January 23, 2015
ISIS Has a Choice to Make: Build a State or Super Terrorist Organization?, National Interest, July 1, 2014
Why the Persian Gulf Isn't Ready for Joint Security, Defense One, June 19, 2014
Blame These Two Countries, not the United States, for the Current Crisis in Iraq, New Republic, June 16, 2014
For America's Gulf allies, anxiety is not a plan, National Interest, November 18, 2013
What Not to Hit in Syria, CNN World (GPS with Fareed Zakaria), September 9, 2013
Hezbollah under Fire, Foreign Affairs, August 16, 2013
In Geneva, Help the Syrian Rebels Bargain from a Position of Strength, Foreign Policy, May 30, 2013
Hezbollah makes it move: Why Lebanon's Najib Mikati resigned, Foreign Affairs, March 25, 2013
No settlement in Damascus (with Andrew Tabler), Foreign Affairs, January 02, 2013
Obama's Syria Red Line, The National Interest, December 04, 2012
Obama's post-election Syria policy is unlikely to change, but it should, The Christian Science Monitor, November 14, 2012
Will Syria enable al-Qaeda's resurgence in the Middle East?, CNN - Global Public Square, September 28, 2012
Hillary Clinton must insist on a united Syrian opposition, The Christian Science Monitor, August 10, 2012
Why Lebanon is comfortably numb, Al-Monitor, June 25, 2012
What the hell should we do about Syria?, Foreign Policy, May 30, 2012
Assessing the al Qaeda Threat in Syria, The National Interest, May 29, 2012
Al-Assad is shooting himself in the foot, CNN - Global Public Square, May 11, 2012
Taking down Damascus in Moscow, The National Interest, April 18, 2012
Why Damascus remains eerily calm, CNN - Global Public Square, February 18, 2012
What a Syrian Civil War Means for US Policy, The National Interest, November 09, 2011
Saudi Arabia goes after Syria, The Christian Science Monitor, August 31, 2011
Libya endgame: Lessons for Syria’s protestors, The Christian Science Monitor, August 23, 2011
Top 3 Reasons Assad is Here to Stay, For Now, The National Interest, June 30, 2011
Long Road to Freedom: Seven Reasons Why the Syrian Protestors Have So Far Failed to Topple Assad, The Christian Science Monitor, June 09, 2011
Obama's Middle East speech: Good but Irrelevant, The Christian Science Monitor, May 19, 2011
Hezbollah on Offense (with Nicholas Blanford), The National Interest, March 08, 2011
Lebanon's Future Turns on Indictment, The Baltimore Sun, January 18, 2011
Beware of Radicalism in Lebanon's Prisons, The Daily Star, August 23, 2010
High-Stake Hinge Moment for Hezbollah and Lebanon, The Christian Science Monitor, August 11, 2010
Muslim Brotherhood and Liberals: Partners for Change in Egypt?, Common Ground News Service, July 20, 2010
Why Syria will keep saying 'No' to Washington, The Christian Science Monitor, May 11, 2010
Terror Alert: Let Us Protect UNIFIL and Fast (with Magnus Ranstorp), The Daily Star, Febryary 01, 2010
What We Fear Most about the Mumbai Attacks, Brookings editorial, December 08, 2008
Syria and Israel: Keep Them Talking (with Bruce Riedel), Haaretz, September 12, 2008
Hezbollah and Al Qaeda (with Bruce Riedel), New York Times, April 09, 2007